Twitteretter

The administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine was halted last week in the EU as some cases of Deep Vein Thrombosis post vaccination were reported. This has resulted in a loss of confidence in the public, yet more proof if any were needed that the average citizen does not understand big numbers. When you are vaccinating, so quickly, such a large number of people, you are going to see all kinds of apparent after effects, just because things will happen with their normal frequency in a population and, given the large numbers vaccinated, some are bound to happen just after the vaccine. A number of just vaccinated people will crash their car, in line with current car accident prevalence, and a number will enter the menopause or lose their wallet. It is easy to draw causality when there is just coincidence and, when numbers are big, coincidence will happen. We should investigate to be sure, but not panic or develop conspiracy theories once causality is discarded, as will likely be the case L...

We are having riots in Spain, or Catalonia, depending on where you sit on Catalonian independence, after Hasel, a rapper, has been imprisoned for crimes including inciting violence and insulting the Spanish crown, in his lyrics and social media. The rioters clamour in defence of freedom of expression, a fundamental right that often nowadays seems to be given prevalence, in the mind of many, over others’ right not to be attacked. I’m following two scientists from the same discipline, whose positions on this issue could not be further apart. Interesting, as they’ve been trained on the scientific method and the need to consider all evidence. However, what for one is black, for the other is white when, in the balance of probability, it is likely grey. This must be an issue of biased sources or, if multiple bilateral sources are being considered, biased evaluation of such sources. When even scientists fall foul of this, imagine the population at large. One of the great challenges of our age...

The title is an old, popular Spanish adage, which translates loosely as ‘The thief believes all others to be thieves’. This refers to projection, one of the many biases or shortcuts humans have developed through evolution to assist fast decisions when navigating a complex World. This bias makes it acceptable for many to, for example, cheat the tax system. At any level, whether we are talking full blown tax evasion strategy or occasional small misdemeanours, justification is often found in the non justifying and unfounded claim that others are doing it too. Even if it were true, that would be more reason to pay taxes, not evade them, as the tax system still needs the revenues when not everyone is contributing fairly. Another interesting example, from a projection bias perspective, is the Trump presidential election campaign claim that Democrats are systematically, and massively, cheating in the election. What does that tell us about the Trump campaign’s intent, at least, if not actions?...

I am lately getting the occasional enthusiastic feedback about Twitteretter. This is welcome, and interesting. Often, the most enthusiastic feedback comes on entries which, in my mind, are not the strongest, whilst those I think the best are met with indifference (or, at least, silence). This is entirely normal. Enthusiastic feedback is elicited when the opinions, or interests, of specific entries mirror those of the reader. This, however, is not my aim with Twitteretter. My modest hope is to open minds, to get readers thinking about subjects, considering opinions, that, otherwise, they may not have. I can only hope that those enthusiastic responses to likeminded blogs will translate into closer following and greater willingness to consider the ideas in those entries which do not so well mirror one’s own opinions. Reading, and its homonym, listening, have as their main value opening one’s minds to the ideas of others, not just the endorphin loaded retribution of self-affirmation  L...

Still on the stockmarket and its randomness, I am reminded of a conversation I had no long ago with a big time market trader who was trying to understand the potential impacts of coronavirus to finetune his investment strategy. This, of course, is a pretty hopeless aim, which is brought about by the illusion that previous investment strategies yielded returns. The chances are that some beat the market, whilst others underperformed it. The illusion is born from bias, traders (as well as politicians, business people and the public, to name just a few) are much happier to take ownership of their successes than of their failures. Success is put down to strategy, failure to unforeseen circumstance. This ego building may be necessary to survive in the city, but it is not a good counsellor to devise future strategy. Danny Kahneman and Amos Tversky wrote extensively about biases, and you could waste your time in much more unproductive and less entertaining ways than reading some of their work ...

There has been a lot of criticism of the management of the coronavirus pandemic by government coming from the medical profession, particularly from those in overwhelmed emergency rooms. The criticism is not only on specific local problems, but often on national or global policy decisions, it’s given a podium by the media and it’s listened to by the public. This makes sense, right? It is a health emergency, listen to the doctors. But this is a mistake. Doctors in the front line don’t know what effects policy decisions are having at large and they don’t know what their close environment would be like if they had not been taken. Their view, at the height of the crisis, is catastrophic, because of where they are. Their opinions are coloured by availability bias, which we should all be aware of, and this means we should all read Kahnemann and Tversky. Would you ask an extremely busy, single, divorce litigation lawyer whether marrying is a good idea? You do not get the wider view from the s...

I have observed, in the last month, a curious phenomenon going on in my WhatsApp groups. Groups which, in the past, have devoted their conversations to mundane, if not even mendacious, subjects, are now discussing epidemiology, economic policy and public health. People are reading on these subjects, they are interested. This is a dangerous moment, if you believe the adage ‘A little knowledge is a dangerous thing’, and I have seen some situations which seem to illustrate this point. Most reading is done on WhatsApp, Facebook and highly selective Twitter threads. These are not the sources I would recommend for gaining a masters in any of these worthwhile, complex subjects. Information may be mistaken or even wilfully faked. And even if not, the critical reading of complex information, combined with awareness of potential intentional and unintentional bias, are essential when trying to gain full understanding. We should be moving to books and peer reviewed articles, if at all possible ...