67. Making predictions is difficult, especially about the future
The
title quote is attributed in different places to Yogi Berra and Nils Bohr. Even
attributing quotes is difficult sometimes. The quote is important today, when
the analysis of policy responses and decision making at the start of the
coronavirus pandemic is gathering pace, now that some countries are past the
worst. In conducting this analysis, we must not fall in the trap of judging the
decision makers with hindsight. It appears clear now that those that went for a
more aggressive crunch the curve rather than flatten the curve, got it right.
But this we know now, after the experiment has been run (and bear in mind, it’s
not over, we still need to see what happens with second waves). It is hard with
what we know today to put ourselves back 4 months ago, to understand how
decisions were made with what we knew then. Policy selection was a throw of the
dice. Those who got it right, mostly got lucky. It is easy to know what the
dice will say after they roll, but much tougher before they do
Length: 1,001 characters
Comments